Today, 13 years after the guns stopped firing and 5 years since the declaration of independence by the Assembly of Kosovo, the international supervision of Kosovan independence finally comes to an end. The International Steering Group or ISG, composed of 25 member nations including the UK, Ireland, the USA and several EU nations are satisfied that the UN Comprehensive Settlement Proposal has been 'substantially implemented'.So what now for this young, fledgling nation? Similar in size and population to Northern Ireland, it is perhaps our closest cousin in Europe. A struggling economy, a deeply divided society and a legacy of ethnic and religious violence now reconciling itself along the tracks of a peace agreement. Kosovo bears the hallmarks of a Northern Ireland from 15 years ago, though it would be unfair to say that the two countries are completely identical. Kosovo still has a long way to go when it comes to international relations, with only 91 UN member states currently recognising Kosovo's independence as legitimate.
Two big players in Balkan regional politics, Russia and Serbia, still refuse to recognise the legitimacy of Kosovo as a sovereign nation, whilst they recognise the breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia. Kosovo has migrated into the category of 'partially unrecognised territory' along the same lines as Taiwan, Palestine, Western Sahara and Transnistria. The 'Almost Countries' who are self-governing but not self-sustaining in the least, struggling for full diplomatic recognition from more than three or four sovereign nations.
The opposition of China, Russia and even Greece and Spain could prove a huge barrier to any Kosovan aspirations to join the UN, NATO or the EU in future, and could seriously cripple the small Kosovan economy (dependent upon both the Euro and the Serbian Dinar) which pails in comparison to that of Northern Ireland alone. The end of the ISG mission in Kosovo, however, does not see the independence of Kosovo from international intervention as the EU, NATO and the UN still maintain a presence in Pristina and throughout the country, especially in Northern Kosovo which is predominantly pro-Serbian and anti-independence. It is likely given the issues still remaining in Kosovo that these international missions will continue for some time to come as the EU especially will not want a failed state sitting on its doorstep.Aspiring secessionist movements and those striving for recognition such as Palestine, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and others will no doubt be watching events unfolding in Kosovo very carefully, and I more than suspect that Alex Salmond of the SNP will be curious to see where independence without the training wheels will take such a young, vibrant nation such as Kosovo. Will it become a member of NATO? The EU? Perhaps even a member of the UN someday? Time will tell.
